Service Plays Monday 1/5/09

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LOGICAL APPROACH

Fiesta Bowl - Glendale, AZ - Monday, January 5, 2009

Ohio State is back in another BCS Bowl but this is not the BCS Title game where the Buckeyes lost one sided games to Florida and LSU the past two seasons. Texas arguably could be in the BCS Title game this season but the BCS computers ranked them behind Oklahoma, giving OU the chance to beat Missouri in the Big 12 Title game and advance to play for the BCS Title which the Sooners did. Texas may have the mindset to prove that they belonged in that Big 12 Title game. After all, they did defeat OU during the regular season. The Longhorns might well want to roll up the score if given the chance. Ohio State is down this year from last despite expectations that they've be stronger. A QB switch early in the season did not have the dramatic impact expected. In Ohio State's biggest tests of the year - at USC and home against Penn State - they scored just 3 and 6 points while allowing 35 and 13. This is an interesting contest from a statistical standpoint as Texas' # 9 offense (476 ypg) will face Ohio State's # 8 defense (279 ypg). The opposite matchup is of fairly average units with Ohio State's # 79 offense (340 ypg) challenging Texas' # 50 defense (340 ypg). Yet the Texas defense might be better than those stats suggest considering the many high powered Big 12 offenses they faced this season. Texas' defensive weakness, versus the pass, may not be able to be exploited by what was a weak OSU pass offense. The Buckeyes averaged just 148 aerial ypg, # 104. Interestingly, Texas has the better rush defense allowing just 74 ypg (# 2) while OSU allowed 115 ypg (# 20). Texas' rush defense also fares better when measured on a per rush basis by .9 of a yard. Both teams are well coached but OSU's recent struggles in big games begs the question of whether the overall level of talent in the Big 10 is way down compared to other conferences. Ohio State and the Big 10 in general have struggled against more athletic, speedier teams and they'll be facing another such team in Texas. Until such time as OSU can again win a big game against an elite foe we must conclude that there is a significant difference in the overall caliber of athlete. With Texas having a point to prove - and outside chance of being voted # 1 by the AP should Florida and Oklahoma not impress in the BCS Title game - the call is for Texas to distance itself from Ohio State, breaking open the game in the second half.

Texas wins 34-14, making TEXAS a 3 Star Selection and the UNDER a 2 Star Selection.

 

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POINTWISE

FIESTA BOWL
TEXAS (11-1) vs OHIO STATE (10-2)
MONDAY, JANUARY 5
8:00 PM EST -- FOX TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Texas .......... 47.9 ...44-19 ... 27-18 .. 177- 74 ...300-266 .. + 3 . Texas
Ohio St ........ 47.2 ...28-13 ... 17-17 .. 192-115 ...148-164 .. +15 . by 5.4 Pts
ANALYSIS
For the first time in 3 years, the Buckeyes of Ohio State are not a part of the BCS Championship contest. Sure, atonement would have been nice for the Bucks, after a pair of one-sided losses to Florida & LSU in the '06 & '07 title matches, in which they were outscored by combined 79-38, but it wasn't to be. OhioSt ranked
a consensus #1 on the "Polls" column of our initial issue this season, with no less than 18 starters from LY's 11-2 team, including QB Boeckman, who ranked #13 in passing efficiency in '07 (2,372 yds, 64%, 25/14); & RB Wells, who ranked #11 in rushing (1,609 yds, 15 TDs). And how about 9 starters from LY's top-ranked
"D"? But, whereas the Bucks not only won consistently the past 2 years (23-3), but also dominated ATS (16-9), their wins this season weren't all that impressive. As a matter of fact, they stood at just 2-6 vs the pts, before covering their last 3. At season's end OSU ranked just 79th in total "O". Pryor (62.5%, 12/4) replaced Boeckman, & a healthy Wells is always trouble. But their opponents here, the Longhorns of Texas, rank #2 vs the run, allowing just 7 overland TDs. Texas, of course, has been the #1 victim of this year's BCS debacle, as its only setback came on the "play of the year", when TexasTech clicked on a 28-yd TD pass in the final 0:01, to take the Steers, 39-33. Led by McCoy (77.6%, 3,445 yds, 32/7) who has thrown for 9,318 yds & 83 TDs the past 3 years, the Longhorns have averaged 44.5 ppg over their last 15 games, & that includes a 52-34 pasting of ArizonaSt in LY's Holiday Bowl. Note that the Devils were allowing only 22.5 ppg
entering that one. Have to go back to the '02 Fiesta to find last time Bucks have been pegged this big a dog. But the Steers have the horses to do this up right.
PROPHECY: TEXAS 40 - Ohio State 24 RATING: 1

 

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MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK

Monday, January 5th
FIESTA BOWL
University of Phoenix Stadium • Glendale, AZ
Texas over Ohio State by 6

Anger management counselors everywhere would do well to tune in to this matchup. Both squads come in royally pissed and would love nothing better than to gain some major retribution on a national stage. In the case of the Buckeyes, they’ve got egg on their face from getting whipped in the last two BCS title games (both losses to SEC teams) – not to mention a humbling 35-3 destruction at the hands of Southern Cal earlier this year. The 11-1 Longhorns have their own ax to grind after being passed in the fi nal BCS rankings by Oklahoma (a team that Texas beat on a neutral fi eld, 45-35), thereby losing out on a chance to play for a national title thanks to the Big 12’s ridiculous decision to use those ratings as the ultimate tiebreaker in a conference logjam. If you’re one of the many who got burned by the Buckeyes in BCS defeats against Florida in ’06 and LSU in ’07, we’ve got three words for you: forget about it. When we finished crunching numbers with our trusty database, nearly all the ‘play on’ systems came out Scarlet and Gray. Ohio State is 40-5 SU and 27-15 ATS in its last 45 games (covered 8 of 9 since the September loss to USC!) and Big 10 Bowl dogs that allow less than 23 PPG are 7-2 SU and 9-0 ATS versus Big 12 opponents. Jim Tressel’s team has also gone 23-7 In The Stats the last 4 years and the stingy OSU defense has held 16 foes to season low – or 2nd low – yardage over the past 2 campaigns. Need more? Tressel is 45-13 SU against .600 or better foes and this year’s squad is the fi rst Buckeye team to ever beat Michigan 5 years in a row. Mack Brown’s Longhorns look a lot like the 2004 Auburn squad that went 11-0 only to earn a No. 3 slot in the BCS polls (beat Va Tech in the Sugar Bowl, 16-13, as 6-point chalk). Texas is a mere 3-10 ATS lately as a Bowl favorite (1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS off back-to-back SU wins) and Brown himself owns a weak 10-21 spread record when laying points to an .800 or better adversary, including 1-12 ATS playing away or at a neutral site. The fi nal nail in Bevo’s ATS coffi n comes courtesy of Ohio State being a 17 Returning Bowl dog of 4 or more points: those teams are 6-1-1 ATS since1990 if they own a win percentage of .800 or greater. Texas QB Colt McCoy has gotten his fair share of ink this season but we think you’ll be surprised by the accuracy and athleticism of OSU freshman QB Terrelle Pryor. In what should be one of the more entertaining Bowls this year, look for Ohio State to improve its Fiesta Bowl record to 4-0 ATS and provide a New Year’s ‘bailout’ for Buckeye bettors.

 

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THE GOLD SHEET EXTRA

TECHNICAL PLAYS OF THE WEEK

OHIO STATE vs. TEXAS (Fiesta)...These programs are familiar with one another after hookups in 2005 & ‘06, games in which the (short-priced) road underdog won both times. Mack has won his last 4 bowl games and covered as chalk at Holiday LY vs. Arizona State, but he’s still just 2-6 as bowl chalk with Horns. Texas 5-1 vs. line last 6 away from Austin, however. Tressel no wins or covers last 2 in bowls (both in BCS title games) after covering previous 4 bowls. Buckeyes did cover last 4 on road TY and are 16-5 vs. spread last 21 away from Columbus. OSU 0-2 in rare dog roles the past two years.
Tech edge-slight to OSU, based on team trends.

 

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THE GOLD SHEET

FIESTA BOWL
OHIO STATE (10-2) vs. TEXAS (11-1)
Monday, January 5 Night at Glendale, AZ (Grass Field)

*Texas 30 - Ohio State 16—Intriguing psychological angles color this battle between two of the nation’s most storied programs. One-loss Texas is ticked off after getting “BCSed” out of a spot in the championship game by rival Oklahoma despite a straight-up win over the Sooners in October. Does an impressive Fiesta victory give the Longhorns claim to at least a share of the national title, à la USC in 2003? Meanwhile, the Buckeyes are eager for an opportunity to reassert their “manhood” after being emasculated by Florida & LSU in the last two BCS championship games. Although many observers seem to see the essence of the on-field matchup as a simple tussle between the top-10 offense of Texas (476 ypg) vs. the top-10 defense of Ohio State (allowing only 279 ypg), the decisive factor in this game might end up being the Longhorns’ underrated stop unit. Sure, the Buckeyes have the most accomplished RB in slammin’ jr. Beanie Wells (121 ypg rushing TY). And, according to Columbus insiders, OSU has recently been working on some wrinkles that put athletic true frosh QB Terrelle Pryor & pocket-passing sr. Todd Boeckman, the former starter, on the field at the same time. But we believe the speed & quickness of the Texas defensive front 7 will prove too much to handle for the slowish Buckeye OL. While Wells & Pryor might occasionally break free, UT’s penetrating sr. DE Brian Orakpo & jr. LB Sergio Kindle (combined 19½ sacks & 28 tackles for loss!) are going to blow up lots of plays in the OSU backfield and limit the Buckeyes to “3-and-out” on many possessions. The majority of sustained drives are much more likely to come from the Longhorns and their star jr. QB Colt McCoy (78%, 32 TDP, just 7 ints.). He has the accuracy & patience to eventually wear down the stingy OSU defense—which allowed more than 21 points only once so far this season—and give Texas a decent shot at covering this substantial (but not unfair) impost.

 

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THE SPORTS MEMO


FIESTA BOWL
Ohio State vs. Texas -9.5 O/U 53.5
Monday, January 5, 8 pm ET FOX - Glendale, Ariz.
Recommendation: Under

Ohio State has enjoyed tremendous success at the Fiesta Bowl this decade, winning a National Title against Miami, knocking off Kansas State as a seven-point underdog and earning their most recent bowl win against Notre Dame following the 2005 season. But since the win over the Fighting Irish, to say that Ohio State has not fared well on the national stage in recent years is something of an understatement. The Buckeyes were embarrassed in each of the last two BCS title games, losing to Florida and LSU by a combined 41 points. It didn’t get any better in their toughest non-conference test this season, a 35-3 wipeout at USC. And the offense was once again nowhere to be found when they lost their chance at another outright Big Ten title in a 13-6 loss to Penn State in Columbus. Can head coach Jim Tressel repair his squad’s national reputation in this matchup? It certainly won’t be easy against a Texas Longhorns team that got shafted by the much-maligned BCS process. The Pokes were left out of the title picture despite the fact they were the only team in the country to beat Oklahoma. Fundamentally, the Buckeyes’ offense has been mediocre at best this season; ranking 37th in the country in “true rushing” yards per carry and 68th in the country in passing yards per attempt. Freshman quarterback Terrelle Pryor finished the season with just 1,245 passing yards on 95 completions but did gain 553 yards on the ground. He was the second leading rusher behind only Beanie Wells and his 1,091 rushing yards. Leading receivers Brian Hartline and Brian Robiskie produced less than 900 receiving yards between them, which means if Ohio State can’t run, they can’t win. The Texas defense ranks No. 2 in the country against the run, allowing only 73.6 yards per game. The Longhorns led the nation in sacks, and held seven opponents to 14 points or less. Probably the most shocking feat is that UT held every opponent under its season average. Considering the explosive offenses in the Big XII this year, those numbers are downright impressive. Ohio State is going to need a very creative game plan on offense if this game becomes a shootout. But while the offense was lethargic for much of the year, the Buckeyes defense was tremendous. Malcolm Jenkins was arguably the nation’s best cornerback, while fellow senior James Laurinaitis won the Butkus and Nagurski awards as the nation’s top defensive player last year. Only USC produced more than three touchdowns against the Buckeyes’ stop unit and after the embarrassment of poor defensive showings in each of the last two national title games, motivation is clearly on their side. We project Ohio State doing whatever it takes to avoid a track meet-type scenario. In all reality, it is their only chance to win. Texas will score but it isn’t going to come as easy and we feel confident in this game going Under the total.

 

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NELLYS GREENSHEET

MONDAY, JANUARY 5, 2009
FIESTA BOWL 7:15 PM
University of Phoenix Stadium – Glendale, Arizona FOX
Texas (-9½) Ohio State (53½)
Ohio State has had some ugly national losses in recent years but most of those games came against SEC teams and Texas is a team that Ohio State is familiar with as these teams played in 2005 and 2006 en route to BCS championship game berths for the respective victors. Texas can make a compelling case to be in the BCS championship game this year having defeated Oklahoma in a neutral site but that may actually hurt the Longhorns if any focus is taken away from facing the Buckeyes. This is the fifth trip to Arizona for Ohio State in the last seven years after being a Fiesta Bowl regular and the offense should be starting to come together with plenty of time to prepare with Pryor at QB. Texas has put up big numbers this season, scoring at least 28 points in every game this season but they also have not faced a top notch defense this year. The Big 12 had plenty of quality teams this season but Oklahoma’s 65th ranked total defense was the toughest faced all year. Ohio State allows just 279 yards per game, eighty yards superior to OU’s numbers and checking in at 8th nationally and allowing just 13 points per game. Texas features the best Big 12 defense however with particularly strong numbers against the run. Ohio State is not a great offensive team and most of the damage starts with RB Wells and the mobility of Pryor as the Buckeyes passed for just 148 yards per game on the year. Ohio State’s offense will have a hard time scoring a lot of points in this match-up the Buckeyes have proven they can win in ugly games but Texas has the speed to expose some weaknesses that have shown up big games against athletic teams. Big underdogs generally do fairly well in the bowl season but backing
Ohio State has some risks with the many big game failures and the questionable strength of the Big Ten. If Texas had its schedule laid out a bit differently they would likely be undefeated and the Longhorns will be out to show they deserved better this season.

TEXAS 31-21
RATING 1: TEXAS (-9½)
RATING 1: ‘UNDER 53½’

 

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NORTHCOAST POWER PLAYS

FIESTA BOWL

UT feels wronged by the BCS fi nishing 11-1 but left out of the title game. OSU had a disappointing season but still landed a BCS bid with their strong fan following. PP calls for UT to win by 8 (line 9’) with the ydg close (UT 339-301). We have won some big plays with OSU TY (5★ GOY winner) and like the Bucks here.
2★ OHIO ST(+) 18 TEXAS 26

 

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NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEP

FIESTA BOWL

The teams have met recently (‘05 & ‘06) with the road team winning both as QB Young led UT to a 25-22 (+1’) win which paved the way for a National Title. In ‘06 the #1 Bucks beat the #2 Horns in rFr McCoy’s 1st start vs a BCS D (59% 154 yds 1-1 ratio). This is OSU’s 5th trip to AZ s/’02 (3-1 SU/ATS) and their 7th BCS app (4-2 SU/3-3 ATS). UT has one Fiesta Bowl app in ‘96 (lost 38-15, -1 to PSU), but is 2-0 (both wins by a combined 4 pts) in BCS gms. Tressel is 4-3 SU/ATS in bowls with lopsided losses in the L/2 BCS title gms.
After starting out his career 8-2 SU vs Top 10 tms (7-3 ATS), Tressel is now on a 0-4 SU/ATS run. Brown is 11-6 in bowls (8-9 ATS) & has guided the Horns to the postssn every yr at the helm (7-3 SU/4-6 ATS). OSU went 0-2 ATS as a dog TY (vs Top 5 USC & PSU) & UT was 3-1 as an AF (3-0 as DD AF). OSU is 15-4 ATS on the road including 4-1 TY with 5H LPS winners over Mich St & NW (‘08 GOY BLOWOUT!). OSU went 5-2 SU/3-4 ATS vs bowl teams outscoring those foes by an avg of 26-16 and outgaining them 331-296 & UT was 6-1 SU/5-2 ATS (+21 ppg +105 ypg). OSU is 8-1 ATS on grass the L3Y (0-3 ATS in domes, roof maybe closed) & UT has the turf advantage playing their HG’s on it (2-1 SU/1-2 ATS under Brown in domes). The Bucks & Horns each have 9 senior starters and 15 upperclassmen in starting roles.
#3 OSU entered ‘08 with Tressel’s most experienced team yet with 19 returning starters incl 6th yr QB Boeckman. OSU lost stud RB Chris Wells to a foot inj in the opener which sidelined him for 3 gms
(including USC) and D’s loaded the box. The result was the implosion at USC in which OSU actually had the 1H ydg edge (177-172) but trailed 21-3 after having 2 TD’s called back and Boeckman’s late 2Q pick six left them demoralized. Both QB’s played and afterward Tressel decided to go with the frosh. Pryor threw 4 TD passes in his 1st start and won his first 5. He scored the game winning TD at Wisky but also had a costly fmbl on a QB sneak vs Penn St. Wells had seven 100 yd gms despite seldom being 100%. The rec corps’ numbers shrunk due to the QB change. Ex-OSU coach Earl Bruce called the OL ‘underachievers’
as the line ret’d 3 Sr starters yet allowed 26 sks (10.7%!). OSU went to a more athletic C, true frosh Brewster, and shuffled the line trying to find the best combo. The offense is #26 in our rankings. Defense
remained OSU’s strength (#3) led by AA’s LB Laurinaitis and CB Jenkins. The DL play improved thanks to the move of ex-LB Gibson to DE and a solid year by DT Abdallah. The Bucks finished #7 in pass eff D. OSU’s numbers did fall in many categories from ‘07 (83-115 rush ypg, 43-24 sks) though they improved in forcing TO’s from 19-28. The Bucks annually have one of the NCAA’s best ST’s and this year finished
#3 led by Big Ten leader PR Small. Texas had one of its most dominating tms TY & played in what Brown called “the toughest stretch in UT history” when they took on 4 tms ranked in the Top 11 eventually losing the last one on the gm’s final play. Brown is the only active 1A HC to guide his tms to 9+ wins in 12 consec ssns. The Horns outscored opp’s by 25 ppg & outgained them by 137 ypg. TY, UT’s #7 off ret’d 7 starters, but had to replace its top RB & WR and QB McCoy was coming off a “soph slump”. McCoy reverted back to his Fr ssn earning 2nd Tm All-B12 honors & was named Walter Camp POY and a Heisman finalist. He is #3 in the NCAA in pass eff. The WR duo of 2nd Tm All-B12 Shipley & Cosby are solid weapons. The OL avg 6’5” 308 (1 Sr starter) paving the way for 177 ypg (4.4) allowing 22 sks (5.7%). 2nd Tm All-B12 C Hall missed the final 2 reg ssn gms, but should be back close to 100%. 1st Tm All-B12 OT Ulatoski anchors a solid unit. The #4 def ret’d just 4 starters from LY but improved allowing 7 ppg & 31 ypg less than LY. UT has 44 sks (#1 NCAA) with 27 coming from the DL (61%). That unit avg 6’3” 271 (4 Sr) allowing just 74 ypg (2.8) which is #2 in the NCAA. They are led by B12 Def POY Orakpo who won the Hendricks, Lombardi & Nagurski Awards. UT is ranked #18 in our pass eff def allowing 266 ypg (57%) with a 18-6 ratio (82 PD leds B12). Longhorns are ranked #12 on ST. 2nd Tm All-B12 K Lawrence has a strong leg & the tms 40.2 net punting ranks #4 in the NCAA. 2nd Tm All-B12 KR/PR Shipley has a TD ret on each. UT has a solid +5 kick block ratio. Texas and QB McCoy are the chic pick here as their offense topped 28+ pts in every game and they topped 42+ in 8 games. Ohio St does it in the trenches with RB Wells and the mobile QB Pryor but their D has led them here as they’ve all’d 1 opp to top 21 pts and held 6 opp’s to 10 pts or less. When you match a quality D against a quality offense, we will side with the Buckeyes stop unit that could have as many as 10 potential NFL’ers on it.

FORECAST: OHIO STATE (+) BY 3
RATING: 3* OHIO ST

 

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THE SPORTS REPORTER

MONDAY, JANUARY 5
FIESTA BOWL
University of Phoenix Bowl –- Glendale, AZ

RECOMMENDED
OHIO STATE over TEXAS by 1
OHIO STATE, 24-23

 

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WINNING POINTS

Monday January 5
FIESTA BOWL (Glendale, AZ)
TEXAS over OHIO STATE by 3
TEXAS 30-27.

 

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KEVIN O'NEILL (The Max)

Texas by 3

 

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BRUCE FELDMAN

Monday, Jan. 5

Texas 28, Ohio State 20: Expect the Buckeyes to come out fired up and move the ball well, but eventually the UT D-line will make some big plays and force a couple of mistakes from Terrelle Pryor. I do expect the OSU secondary to do a solid job of slowing down the UT offense, though.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Brand X Sports, Mike Volpe Bowl Package


Fiesta Bowl Monday January 5
Ohio State Buckeyes versus Texas Longhorns
Line Texas -9 Total 53

I can’t help but wonder what the heck, Utah, Texas Tech, TCU, Alabama
Georgia and Boise State are thinking about Ohio State playing in this game and not them.

This could be U-G-L-Y.

5* Texas Longhorns -9
Bonus
5* OVER 53

 

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The Edge Vegas Experts

Texas

 

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Fairway Jay

Reg - Under 51.5 OSU/Texas

 

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Lee sterling

underdog special
ohio state

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Wild Bill

Ohio St +10 1/2 (5 units)
Texas is not a good bowl favorite and this field is geared for the underdog the past few years. Remember Boise vs Oklahoma? Remember Pitt winning big in this one? Pryor & B Wells will be the difference here along with some defensive pressure Colt McCoy has not seen in a long while. OSU defense much better than the likes of Okie State, Tx Tech or Oklahoma...Ohio St pulls off the upset 34-31...

Over 53 1/2 Ohio St-Texas (5 units)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gina

Monday, January 5
Fiesta: Texas -9½